Monday, June 29, 2015

Shanghai Gold Exchange 54.2 Tonnes of Bullion Withdrawn - Total More Than All Official Gold of US

"During the latest week there were 54.2 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

Since the beginning of 2009 there have been 9,030 tonnes of gold taken out of the Shanghai Exchange into China.   

That is more than 290,320,000 troy ounces of fine gold in bars.

Just for the sake of comparison, as shown in the last chart below, the total official holdings of the United States are about 261,498,926 ounces of gold.

So it does seem that since 2009 more gold has been withdrawn from the Shanghai Exchange than is in all the official holdings, vaults, forts, mints and Federal Reserve Banks of the United States.

Related: Why Shanghai Gold Withdrawals Equal Chinese Gold Demand


Another Week, Another Chinese Gold Mine

"hough the true amounts are debatable, it’s generally conceded that China is importing a lot of gold.
What’s not included in this calculation — but should be — are the deposits its mining companies are acquiring overseas. This gold-in-the-ground is just as much a national monetary asset as is metal accumulated by Chinese investors and — to the extent that the mining companies sell their output to the government — can be expected to add to Chinese central bank gold holdings over time.
Most recently, China’s Zijin Mining Group not only made another Australian acquisition but raised $1.6 billion to keep the M&A binge going:

China’s Zijin targets Australian gold miner in M&A spree

SYDNEY: Zijin Mining Group has launched a bid for Australian gold explorer Phoenix Gold, the Chinese company’s third planned acquisition of a foreign mining asset in less than a month...


Richard Russell – Big Money Now Panicking As Legendary Economist John Williams Issues A Dire Warning

"Richard Russell:  "Of everything I read there is one item that bothers me, it’s the newsletter by John Williams titled Shadow Government Statistics. But strangely, I never see him quoted. Here’s what he says in his latest mailing:
"Broad outlook is unchanged: economy remains in downturn. Dollar faces massive decline with ongoing implications for a hyperinflation crisis. The US economy remains in ongoing downturn, while the US dollar faces a massive decline, with implications for a meaningful upturn in inflation evolving into a great hyperinflationary crisis. Signs of systemic instability are increasing anew."
Williams' report is based on cutting through the government and Federal Reserve propaganda and giving us the real facts. Williams believes that the US never grew out of the great recession and is still in recession. 
The question I ask is why nobody is quoting Williams on the economy. His position is so different from the conventional wisdom that I think it constitutes news. It’s incomprehensible to me that no publication interviews Williams. Personally, I suspect that Williams' view of the economy is the correct one. Sooner or later what Williams is saying will be picked up by some widely read publication such as USA Today or the New York Times.
KWN Hyperinflation 12:31:2014
A Terrifying Hyperinflation
What makes me think that Williams is correct is that nobody will touch or broadcast his ideas. The American people know that something is wrong; you can’t fool all the people all the time. Ultimately Williams’ facts will become public. When that happens the Fed will open the flood gates in a frantic attempt to get the economy going again. With the Fed ramping up the economy by creating new trillions in fiat currency, the US economy will move into a state of hyperinflation.
Big Money Is Panicking
I think big money sees the picture and is expressing their fears by buying one-of-a-kind tangibles. You can see this reflected in the auction prices at Christy’s and Sotheby’s. At auction, works of art, gems, collectibles and apartments in New York are going at sky high prices, breaking records at every auction..."


Monday, June 22, 2015

Shanghai Gold Exchange Sees Offtake of About 46 Tonnes of Gold For the Week

"There were 46.15 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in the latest week.

This chart is from the data wrangler Nick Laird at


Nomi Prins, Keynote Speaker Who Addressed The Fed, IMF And World Bank, Warns There Is No Saving This Global Financial System

"Today Nomi Prins, who was the keynote speaker that just addressed the Federal Reserve, IMF and the World Bank, warned King World News that there is no saving this global financial system in the second of a series of powerful interviews that have now been released.

Who Will Save The System The Next Time It Begins To Implode?
Eric King:  “You mentioned that we are in unprecedented times.  And the concern is that when the 2008 collapse unfolded there was all this money printing and the banks were bailed out.  It really fell on the shoulders of the taxpayers, but the concern as you said is that this leverage is growing.  There are over one quadrillion dollars of derivatives.  With the leverage totally ramped up in (terms of) the central banks’ (balance sheets), who will save the financial system (this time around)?  Who will save the banks?  There are all these bail-ins that have been written into law in the West and it seems like the next move is just to steal money from the public.  Who will save the system this time when it implodes?
Nomi Prins:  “When it implodes it will implode more dangerously.  The IMF and the Fed have different ideas about whether rates should stay low or go up.  In this particular round the IMF won.  They want rates to stay low because they don’t know what’s going to happen to the global financial system if the availability of cheap money goes away…."


Is The Gold Market Setting Up For A Historic Worldwide Mania?

"And the third thing, Eric, has to do with confidence in this debt-based financial system worldwide.  There has been a saying ascribed to JP Morgan that ‘Gold is money.  Everything else is credit.’  And there is astonishing worldwide complacency in a credit system that I see as fundamentally and mathematically challenged.  There are a lot of obligations without the apparent ability to service them.

Is The Gold Market Setting Up For A Historic Worldwide Mania?
If we have something that challenges the faith in the credit-based system, and I’m not talking about a major shock, I’m talking about even a subtle sort of shift in confidence, I think gold could do very well, perhaps even exploding to the upside.” 


The Situation In The Real World Is Terminal – Silver Is The Wild Card

"Now to make sure the public doesn’t grasp the true reality of this, markets are aggressively manipulated, with global stock markets that are already grotesquely overvalued.  Despite this harsh reality, the global stock markets continue to head higher while precious metals are beaten down. 
So precious metals are relentlessly attacked in the paper markets, regardless of the backdrop, are denigrated in the mainstream media.  That begs the question:  What is the real status of the gold and silver markets?  Gold has been driven down today as part of the manufactured reaction to the apparent ‘good’ Greek news.  This ignores the fact that gold was under intense pressure as the Greek situation appeared to be falling apart last week.

The Situation In Real World Is Terminal – Silver Is The Wild Card
However, silver is the real wild card.  After being driven down this morning in concert with gold, the price of silver rebounded dramatically.  So there is a different feel to the silver market.  
The other question I have is:  What are the powers that be so afraid of at this juncture?  They are afraid of the fact that the situation in the real world is essentially terminal, as was so aptly described in the KWN interviews with Nomi Prins this weekend.
There are also massive short positions in the paper markets in both gold and silver that are held by the bullion banks and so they have to protect these positions.  But in addition an explosion in gold and silver prices, which I can assure you is coming, will blow the cover off this ridiculous zero based interest rate policy and create havoc in global financial markets.  As a result, the powers that be will move heaven and earth to put this inevitable outcome off as long as possible.

The Comex Has Become A Joke
But coming back to silver, the situation is extremely interesting.  The Comex open interest as you know, Eric, is at an all-time record level and represents nearly one billion ounces.  This exceeds the entire annual mine production by somewhere between 10 – 20 percent.  This is so far out of line with any other commodity traded that it has become a joke.
Interestingly, Keith Neumeyer, the CEO of First Majestic, which is a quality silver producer, sent a letter of protest to the CFTC recently.  His letter was addressing the manipulative nature of these preposterous activities in the paper silver market.  Well, in response the open interest blew out another 20,000 contracts in the wake of his protest.  That represents a classic ‘in your face’ response from the manipulators..."


Sunday, June 14, 2015

Writing's On The Wall: Texas Pulls $1 Billion In Gold From NY Fed, Makes It "Non-Confiscatable"

"The lack of faith in central bank trustworthiness is spreading. First Germany, then Holland, and Austria, and now - as we noted was possible previously - Texas has enacted a Bill to repatriate $1 billion of gold from The NY Fed's vaults to a newly established state gold bullion depository..."People have this image of Texas as big and powerful … so for a lot of people, this is exactly where they would want to go with their gold," and the Billincludes a section to prevent forced seizure from the Federal Government..."


What Would Happen If Mainstream Investors Discovered Gold?

"China, India and Russia are accumulating a lot of gold, but they’re virtually alone. Traditional money managers, for a variety of reasons, view the metal as neither a viable investment (because it doesn’t pay interest) nor a substitute for cash (because they don’t understand monetary history).
But what if they changed their minds? From Chapter 21 of The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops:
The fact that the East stands ready to buy all their gold at late-2013 exchange rates presents developed-world central banks with a dilemma: They can continue their manipulation, in which case they will soon run out of metal. Or they can step back – like they did when the London Gold Pool collapsed in 1968 – and let market forces choose an exchange rate, which will almost certainly be far higher than at present.
To understand how quickly and dramatically the latter scenario might play out, consider the current asset base of the money management industry. Most of the world’s approximately $100 trillion of liquid wealth is overseen by mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and pension funds. And they own virtually no gold.
Shayne McGuire, head of global research at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, estimates that pension funds, for instance, have allocated about 1/3 of one percent of their $30 trillion of assets to gold. If they were to up their exposure to just one percent (still extremely low) that would represent new demand for about $200 billion worth of gold, or about 4,700 tonnes at the metal’s late-2013 exchange rate. That’s more than 5-times the weight of gold that now resides in GLD, the biggest gold ETF, and about 125 percent of the late-2013 market capitalization of the entire gold mining sector. If pension funds allocate five percent of their assets to gold – which is still modest when viewed against historical records – the resulting $1.4 trillion increase in demand would overwhelm the market, virtually guaranteeing the kinds of defaults and shortages that almost took place in early 2013.
And that’s just pension funds. The other institutional investors mentioned above have $70 trillion under management and also own very little gold. A one-percent swing in their allocation would send another $700 billion into this small, thin, already-out-of-balance market, further destabilizing it..."


Turns Out There’s Already Competition In The Gold-Backed Currency Space

"The splash that BitGold made recently by buying GoldMoney led many (including this writer) to assume that the Canadian start-up was pioneering the gold-backed currency space. But it turns out that Peter Schiff’s Euro Pacific Bank already allows non-US customers to buy gold and/or silver, store it for free with Australia’s Perth Mint, and then use a debit card to spend it.
Among Euro Pacific’s claimed advantages:
Unlike physical bullion, the wealth in this account is totally portable: “Clients maintain access to their purchasing power despite whatever local capital restrictions or government controls may be imposed. If you want to leave the country there’s no need to travel with physical metal holdings when card access is available,” says Schiff.
It allows clients to create their own personal gold standard without waiting for their governments. And they can do so “in complete privacy.”
An upgrade is coming. “Later this year we launch our improved service, which will allow 24/7 gold buys in multi-currencies for less than 1% commission, and free storage. Clients will be able to access their holdings using their debit cards as they do now, just easier and at lower cost, as well as transfer gold directly to other clients or merchants, like a PayPal for gold. However, our clients will also be able to sell gold for cash and wire proceeds directly to third parties, or use their gold as immediate credit to purchase stocks and bonds on exchanges around the world. When they sell stocks or receive dividends they can opt to receive those payments in gold too. It’s a complete platform for commerce and investment based on gold, yet giving clients seamless access to the larger fiat world.”
For more on Schiff’s response to the emergence of BitGold, see Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery..."


Man Asked To Speak To Chinese Officials Warns China’s Insatiable Gold Demand Being Fueled By Worries That The Global Financial System May Crash

"Today a legend who was recently asked by the Chinese government to give a speech to government officials in China warned King World News that China's insatiable gold demand is being fueled by fears that the global financial system may crash.
Eric King:  “John, you are connected to China at the highest levels of government.  I know you have seen several key charts that KWN featured, one of them was the Gold vs Monetary Base Ratio and another was the Fed’s Balance Sheet vs Gold Price.  Obviously China is aware of the massive distortions in these ratios and they have responded by buying up all the physical gold they can.  They are trading in dollars for gold as fast as possible.  What is China’s perspective based on your conversations with high level officials in China?”
John Ing:  “China is awash in dollars as a result of the massive money creation.  China knows that the Fed’s balance sheet has grown to almost $5 trillion and they also know that the price of gold is radically undervalued when compared to the Fed’s bloated balance sheet.  Both the Chinese and the Russians know that the United States can’t pay back its staggering debt without massively debasing its currency, so they have both been huge buyers of gold because a day of reckoning is near.

China's Insatiable Gold Demand Fueled By Fears The Financial System May Crash
The massive purchases of physical gold by the Chinese are also being fueled by the oceans of derivatives that threaten the stability of the global financial system.  Two key executives announcing their resignations from Deutsche Bank have not gone unnoticed by China.  The Chinese feel that the enormous quantity of global derivatives could create even more panic and instability in the future than what the world already went through during 2008 – 2009 collapse…."


Gerald Celente – What The Keynote Speaker Who Addressed The Federal Reserve, IMF And World Bank, Just Told Me Is Terrifying

"Today the top trends forecaster in the world told King World News that what the keynote speaker who addressed the Federal Reserve, IMF and the World Bank said to him was terrifying.
Eric King:  “Gerald, I want to bring up the two charts I know you’ve had a chance to look at that we posted at King World News:
MacroTrends:  This chart (below) shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. The monetary base roughly matches the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which indicates the level of new money creation required to prevent debt deflation. Previous gold bull markets ended when this ratio crossed over the 4.8 level.
KWN Macro Trends IV 6:11:2015
King World News note:  The chart above reveals just how far the bull market in gold has to run before it ends in exhaustion.  Gold would have to advance more than 16.5-times in price vs the monetary base in order to hit the 4.8 level highlighted above.  If the monetary base just stayed stagnant and the 4.8 ratio is hit, that means the gold price will be nearly $20,000.
King World News note on chart II (below):  There is a massive chasm between the Fed's balance sheet and today's gold price.  This is one of the many reasons the gold price is set for a historic upside surge (see chart below that is updated through June of 2015).
KWN Macro Trends V 6:11:2015
Eric King continues:  “The Chinese are obviously aware of this and I talked to John Ing about this as well.  But as you look at those great distortions, Gerald, it really gets down to something that you’ve been talking about for quite some time and that is the interference in the “fake” markets, the phony markets that are manufactured by the central banks around the world.”….

The Charts Don't Lie
Gerald Celente:  “The charts don’t lie and the numbers don’t lie.  Wall Street lies, the Federal Reserve lies and the politicians lie for them.  And the presstitutes just keep the lie going. This unprecedented Ponzi scheme will eventually collapse.  So when we look at the chart and we see that $20,000 figure for gold, in relationship to the Federal Reserve and what they’ve been doing, here’s what we’re forecasting:
A rapid rise in gold prices, because when this Ponzi scheme collapses you are going to see spikes up in gold that mirror the charts that you put up there, and the spikes up in all the fake money that they’ve been printing.  Gold is going to follow it identically..."


Sunday, May 31, 2015

Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawals 42.5 Tonnes For the Week

"Gold is moving from West to East.

You may read about the roots of this phenomenon here.

This chart is from Nick Laird at

Related:  Germany Leads Western Gold Buying

Chindia: The Steady Increase in Gold Demand From China and India

"It is an interesting phenomenon that is often overlooked and underappreciated outside of the certain small circles of those who watch these sorts of things.

Gold is flowing from West to East.   What it means and will mean is worth considering.

In the bottom portion it is easily seen that the monthly offtake is steadily increasing.  And it is also apparent that China is outpacing India in the accumulation of gold.

These charts are from Nick Laird, who chronicles all things gold and silver, at

A Recession Within A Recession

"On Friday, the federal government announced that the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.7 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2015.  This unexpected shrinking of the economy is being primarily blamed on “harsh” weather during the first three months of this year and on the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.  Most economists are confident that U.S. GDP will rebound back into positive territory when the numbers for the second quarter come out, but if that does not happen we will officially meet the government’s criteria for being in another “recession”.  To make sure that the numbers for Q2 will look “acceptable”, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is about to change the way that it calculates GDP again.  They are just going to keep “seasonally adjusting” the numbers until they get what they want.  At this point, the government numbers are so full of “assumptions” and “estimates” that they don’t really bear much resemblance to reality anyway.  In fact, John Williams of has calculated that if the government was actually using honest numbers that they would show that we have continually been in a recession since 2005.  That is why I am referring to this as a “recession within a recession”.  Most people can look around and see that economic conditions for most Americans are not good, and now they are about to get even worse.
For quite a while I have been warning that another economic downturn was coming.  Well, now we have official confirmation from the Obama administration that it is happening.  The following is an excerpt from the statement that the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday…"


Man Asked To Speak To Chinese Officials Issues Warning About The Most Important Move Of The Decade And China’s Golden Agenda

"...The upcoming five year review of the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket will formally be placed on the IMF agenda in October. This summer, China will be part of the negotiations to include the renminbi in a basket of the IMF’s de facto currency alongside the dollar, the yen, the euro and sterling. The move that would see it recognized as an official reserve currency is more than symbolic, it is a major step in making the renminbi more liquid since it would trigger a reallocation of investors’ global portfolios. 
China has liberalized restrictions as part of that process, such as removing the administrative cap on bank deposit rates to outsiders and lessening restrictions on inflows into its fixed income market. China has also swiftly removed capital controls with some thirty central banks. Beijing sponsored institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) with 57 founding member countries and CIC were set up in part to offset Western hegemonic institutions.
Importantly the renminbi has been one of the few currencies to hold its value against the dollar. The United States is the largest holder of gold in the world at 8,100 tonnes but the holding is pale in comparison to their indebtedness. Currently the US dollar makes up almost 63 percent of the world central bank holdings while the Euro is at 22 percent.
Standing in China’s way is the lack of sufficient gold reserves at only 1.1 percent of reserves according to the last update in 2009. We believe that China’s current and seemingly insatiable purchases of gold is a key part of a move to make the renminbi an international currency and attractive as a store of value. Making the renminbi a reserve currency would require China to disclose its gold holdings which is a paltry 1,059 tonnes. In fact, for China to hold just 10 percent of its reserves in gold, equivalent to other industrialized countries’ holdings, China would need to purchase the next three year’s world output. 
Bloomberg has estimated that China has already tripled their reserves. China remains the largest producer and consumer of gold, importing 410 tonnes in the first two months of this year alone. Chinese and Indian consumer demand make up more than half of global consumer demand, according to the World Gold Council.
China needs a lot more gold. The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) has already overshadowed Comex with some 50 tonnes delivered in only one week. As a potential source for gold, China has created a $16 billion gold investment fund through the country’s Shanghai Gold Exchange with some 60 member countries to fund gold mining projects across the Silk Road as part of China’s golden agenda.
Gold's Breakout Will Be The Most Important Move This Decade
If China questions the US and its currency, then others too may have doubts. What damages trust in the United States, damages the world. After the financial meltdown, investors wonder who they can trust. We believe foreign investors have become more and more cautious about financing America’s profligacy, particularly at nominal rates.
The recent bond crash is a warning signal. Another is gold’s breakout and quadruple bottom. Gold is an alternative investment to the dollar. It is a store of value when everything else seems risky. We believe that gold’s inevitable breakout from its trading range will be the most important global movement in the current decade."


Ominous Warnings From The IMF And Billionaire Paul Singer Dramatically Increase Fear Levels

"With oil surging nearly 3.5 percent, today a legend in the business sent King World News a powerful piece discussing ominous warnings from the IMF and billionaire Paul Singer that have dramatically increase fear levels.
From Art Cashin's notes: "Greece – Not Quite A Reassurance – The IMF head raised a few eyebrows with a new interview: 
“A Greek exit is a possibility,” Lagarde told the German newspaper in an advance extract of an interview due to be published on Friday. She said such a scenario would not be “a walk in the park” for the Eurozone but would “probably not be an end to the euro,” she said.
Lagarde also said it is very unlikely that a deal between Greece and its creditors could happen in the coming days. “It is very unlikely that we will reach a comprehensive solution in the next few days,” Lagarde said. “[There] is a vast field to plow,” she added.
The IMF chief noted that after positive signs from Athens about 10 days ago, talks have stalled during the past week and warned that no loans will be disbursed if there is no reform agreement in place. “We have rules. We have principles. There cannot be a half evaluation. This evaluation cannot be rushed.”
With this in mind, the paper argued it is practically impossible to have a disbursement of the rest of the funds by the end of June because this would require an agreement between Athens and all the institutions.
Another Strong Caution – Another large hedge fund manager has come out to call the sovereign bond markets around the globe a massive short target.  Here's a taste courtesy of CNBC:
Billionaire investor Paul Singer says he has spotted the next big thing to bet against: bonds.
"Today, six and a half years after the collapse of Lehman, there is a Bigger Short cooking. That Bigger Short is long-term claims on paper money, i.e., bonds," Singer wrote in a letter to investors of his hedge fund firm Elliott Management obtained by
"Bigger Short" is a play on "The Big Short," the book by Michael Lewis describing how a tiny group of investors made huge sums of money for their contrarian bets against mortgage-backed securities before the collapse of the housing market in 2007 and 2008.
"Central bankers have chosen, and doubled down on, a palliative (super-easy money and QE), which is unprecedented and extreme, and whose ultimate effects are unknowable," Singer wrote of governments stimulating markets, in part through the purchase of bonds.
Consensus – Could be a rumormongers delight as a potential Greek deadline looms next week.  Monetary base is not growing so market is doing its own tightening ahead of the Fed.  Big rebalance due on the bell, as previously noted.  Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble..."


We Are Now Living In A World Headed Toward Bursting Financial Bubbles And Disaster

"On the heels of another volatile trading week in major markets, today one of the top economists in the world sent King World News an incredibly powerful piece warning we are now living in a world that is headed toward bursting financial bubbles and disaster.  Below is the fantastic piece from Michael Pento.
May 30 – (King World News) – For the first time in its country’s history, Portugal sold 6 month T-bills at a negative yield. The 300 million euros ($333 million) worth of bills due in November 2015 sold at an average yield of minus 0.002%. A negative yield means investors buying these securities will get back less money from the government than they paid when the debt matures…."


Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - How Unusual: Precious Metals Hit on Option Expiration

"June is a big, active month for gold on the Comex.

And today was the option expiration for the precious metal June contracts.

Le voilà, comme prévu.

What else might we have expected?  Honesty?  Price discovery?  A market clearing price between users and suppliers?  

These are markets that have been willfully overwhelmed and misdirected by speculation.  There are no fundamentals in The Bucket Shop, just what is essentially full time market rigging, with little to no product changing hands between long term investors and suppliers.

And similarly, like healthy nourishment in a snack cake, so there is still little to no recovery in The Recovery™.  

When the reckoning for this protracted folly and organized plunder finally comes, they will all be so amazed.
It is so very modern to think that things are just as we say they are, because we say so.  And nowhere is this psychosis more apparent than in modern economics and money.  
 It is the ultimate tyranny of selfishness and egoism, and will last as long as the masters can keep extending their power and their will, crushing all dissent and all others in their path,
And then comes the downfall, the sickening plunge, and the moment of terrible lucidity when the music stops.  And the illusion dies.

Have a pleasant evening.

Who Would Win A Conflict In The South China Sea: The Infographic

"As regular readers are no doubt aware, the US and China areracing towards a maritime conflict stemming from Beijing’s construction of what Washington has condescendingly called “sand castles” in the Spratly archipelago. 
Atop these man-made islands are cement plants, air strips, and soon-to-be lighthouses, as China boldly asserts its territorial claims on what are heavily-contested waters though which trillions in seaborne freight pass each year.
Now, with Beijing set to enforce what is effectively a no-fly zone over its new sovereign ‘territory’ we bring you the following graphic from WSJ which shows that when it comes to sheer size, China’s air force and Navy are beyond compare.

More, from WSJ
China’s promise to beef up its naval capabilities to prevent further “meddling” and “provocative actions” by rivals in the South China Sea is a daunting prospect for most of its neighbors, which already view Beijing’s fast-improving armed forces with trepidation...

As a recent Pentagon review of China’s military modernization drive noted, “China is investing in capabilities designed to defeat adversary power projection and counter third-party—including U.S.—intervention during a crisis or conflict.” In practice, that means hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles positioned near the coast to deter Japanese or American warships from coming anywhere near Chinese territory. China has a substantial submarine fleet as well, piling on more risk for enemy ships."