The answer: well, probably.
Reid writes:
It has long been our view that over the last couple of decades the global economy has rolled from bubble to bubble with excesses never fully being allowed to unravel. Instead aggressive policy responses have encouraged them to roll into new bubbles. This has arguably kept the modern financial system as we know it a going concern. Clearly there have always been bubbles formed through history but has there been a period like the last 20 years where the bursting of one bubble has consistently led directly to the formation of the next?
It's an amazing statement — that the modern financial system doesn't just experience bubbles, but in fact needs them. You could say this makes bubbles a feature, not a bug, of the financial system (which is something many people say already).
And the latest bubble appears to have rolled into bonds, with yields tumbling around the world and government debt in Europe currently at half-millennia lows.
What we found was that bonds are where the bubble has migrated to. This is not to say that the bond market bubble is about the burst — far from it — but that it is a necessary condition for maintaining the debt ladened financial system that has been the by-product of major crisis management over the last two decades. The worry is that there is nowhere left for this bubble to go given that it is now in the hands of the lenders of last resort (governments and central banks with regulators ensuring other large captive buyers). Although we think this bubble needs to be maintained to ensure the solvency of the current financial system, the best case scenario is that it slowly pops over time via negative real returns for bondholders. The worst case scenario being future restructuring..."
at http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-on-the-bond-bubble-2014-9#ixzz3D2H8hP2o
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